A post for all the stats nerds out there

Chris Baty @ Fri, 2008-10-24 21:46

As an anthropology major, I never thought I'd spend as much time as I do thinking about web servers. But over the last 10 years of NaNoWriMo, I've become completely obsessed with the way traffic flows through our sites. Russ and I have named all of our servers after coffee-growing regions in Ethiopia (the birthplace of coffee), and I love each of them like my little, roboty children.

In October and November, before I get out of bed in the morning, I grab the laptop and check our Google Analytics stats from the previous day. (For those of you who have real lives, Google Analytics is just a complicated hit-counter that tells you interesting things about the people who come to your website.)

From three years of Analytics stats, I've learned that we have very stable traffic patterns, but they're kind of weird compared to other sites. Basically we're pretty slow through the summer and early fall. In October traffic builds in a nonchalant, nothing-to-see-here-folks kind of way until October 31. At which point everyone in the free world suddenly appears on our site.

I have no idea where they come from. But faced with the onslaught of so many writers, cheerleaders, and curious onlookers, our roboty children tend to scream and run for the hills. And every year, Russ patiently coaxes them back to work with balloons and ice cream.

By November 3, the Great Drop-Off has begun, as thousands of the saner members of the NaNoWriMo community realize they have more sensible things to do than write an entire book in a month. From there, it's a pretty gentle slope down to December 1.

And that's our stable, weird traffic pattern. Because I thought it might be marginally interesting to those of you who are also obsessed with web traffic, I made a snapshot of what last October looked like on the NaNoWriMo.org site, and another one comparing this October to last October. Note: This doesn't include the Young Writers Program site traffic, which exhibits similar weather patterns but on a less stormy scale.

First up: October 1, 2007 through November 1, 2007.

October 1-November 1, 2007October 1-November 1, 2007

And then this is what the last 30 days have looked like for us. The blue line is this year's traffic. The green line is traffic from the same day in 2007. That huge, sad, dip on October 1, 2008, is when one of our favorite children, Lekempti, died. (We brought him back to life a day later.)

September 23, 2008-October 23, 2008September 23, 2008-October 23, 2008

Given those percentage increases from 2007, I think we're going to see an absolutely crazy November 1 spike this year. Hold on to your hats, everyone!

Anyone else out there have strange site traffic patterns they'd be willing to share? Post a link in the comments!

Chris


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ricky-loves-candy
Wed, 2009-11-04 13:11
 

ohmygod! i'm so happy to get to do this. i'm a first time nanoer (is that a word?) so it's really great to know that there are othes of "my kind" out there.

 
Dale
Tue, 2008-11-04 22:41
 

Ever consider something like using Amazon EC2 (Elastic Compute Cloud) to help shoulder the burden of serving instead of having to maintain the servers yourselves?
Basically, how it works is you let the provider worry about the servers. You just buy service, and in the case of EC2, upload an image of the server you want to run (it's based off of Xen virtualization).
When your spike is over, you don't need to continue paying for server/bandwidth/power that you don't need to, and it's easy to add more if you see your usage getting really high.
Another option is a host like Slicehost.
Wikipedia - Cloud computing for more info.

 
Mon, 2008-11-03 14:01
 

First, I wanted to say thanks for all your hard work! Seriously.

Second, is it possible to buy extra bandwidth for the month of November? By having the site crippled right now, your missing A LOT of people actually using the site, and turning around and making donations.

I know you usually have a fall-off period, but right now, most pages time out, so people probably are becoming programmed to not even come by the site. (I know I am) .... It's really a no-win situation.

 
Randomdej
Sun, 2008-11-02 19:31
 

For a real stat nerd out here - any chance we could see a screenshot of the traffic spike that happened over the last few days (Oct 31 - Nov2)? I'd really like that.

 
Wed, 2008-10-29 12:16
 

Hi Chris - wow, and I think it's a good day to get over 50 hits! The weirdest spike ever was on a random day last August when the blog labels were: Elvis, Loves, Rock & Roll. It wasn't a spectacular post - and Elvis only had a walk on role, but it's still unbeaten for hits!

 
Tue, 2008-10-28 07:59
 

Wow, well NaNoWriMo isn't illegal but it is certainly a drug. :) Thanks for sharing he stats!

 
Sat, 2008-10-25 19:39
 

Another fun Google Trends factoid: Apparently NaNoWriMo gets searched for more often than National Novel Writing Month. Who knew? I guess people just have to find out what this crazy-sounding word represents.

 
Chris Baty (verified)
Sat, 2008-10-25 08:35
 

Hey Matt,

Thanks for sending the Trends link from Google Labs! I didn't know it existed. There are so many fascinating things in it, I don't even know where to start.

1) Searches for NaNoWriMo had a higher peak in 2006 than 2007, which doesn't make sense, given the actual sign-up trends. Though maybe once people know where NaNoWriMo is, they don't need to search for it?
2) Finland. Finland?
3) Portland.
4) The phrase "Scale is based on the average worldwide traffic of nanowrimo in all years." Which makes it sound like NaNoWriMo is an illegal narcotic that people have been smuggling over borders.

Very cool!

Chris

 
Sat, 2008-10-25 00:12
 

wow! the world of web analytics and literature collide. nice work!

if you haven't used this before - google trends can validate your traffic findings from GA. here is what the year over year traffic looks like for the search term 'nanowrimo'

http://www.google.com/trends?q=nanowrimo

cheers,

matt

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