Predictions for NaNoWriMo 2009?

Chris Baty @ Tue, 2009-10-20 14:29

So 2008 was a really great year for NaNoWriMo. We had an all-time-high win rate (18.2%), a record-smashing number of words written (1.6 billion), and a huge number of participants (119,301). After the event ended, we all spent a fair amount of time here on the blog scratching our heads over what made 2008 such a bountiful year for month-long noveling. Was it the recession? The historic nature of it being the 10th NaNoWriMo? The fact that November magically harbored five weekends that year?

Whatever it was, the numbers were very, very big.

This year is looking like NaNoWriMo will grow again. Site traffic is up 20%. Sign-ups are up 10% from this time last year, and we just sent out our annual "come back and write with us!" email to last year's participants (four days later than we did last year).

So here's the question: Why might more people be signing up to write novels this year than last? Is it still the recession giving people more free time for book-writing? Is it just more people hearing about the challenge through things like Twitter and Facebook? If this is your first year, what inspired you to take part now?

And does anyone care to take a guess on what this year's sign-up numbers for NaNoWriMo will be?

Excited and nervous,

Chris


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Mare Rolfes
Fri, 2009-11-13 19:57
 

I'm in high school still, but this is my first NaNoWriMo.
The story is coming along, and it's exciting seeing my word count spike everyday. I never thought I could write a novel, and I had so many people tell me how hard it would be and ask me why I was doing it. They don't get how fulfilling it is just to be able to say that I did it.
I found out about it on SparkNotes.
My guess is that there will be 215020 sign ups this year, and 32,818 winners.

 
Sat, 2009-11-07 07:27
 

I've got over 10,000 words with 2 FAIL days and it's my first week!! I'm not concerned about putting words on paper I'm concerned about the plot not making sense!!! But, I hope to make it to the finish line NO problem. I'm even blogging about it!!

Blog - http://www.motivatedprocrastinator.wordpress.com
Twitter - @motivprocrast
FB - Motivated Procrastinator

I hope to see everyone sane @ the finish line!

 
Bonnie
Fri, 2009-11-06 22:37
 

I lost my writing job in the spring and have been jonesing for something to do with my hands. I've always wanted to do nanowrimo but with a full-time writing gig, I would get home and want to pass out, not write some more! What's weird is that although I am mostly unemployed (freelancing, a little) I'm not writing during "work hours," but at night after the kid is in bed, just as I would do if I had a day job...

 
DoraAnn
Fri, 2009-11-06 21:39
 

I see so many comments that I relate to, and love the upbeat comments and humor that will help us all. This more exciting that manh of you can imagine for me; I am 56 and have longed to write a novel for over 40 years. My degree is in Literature, and I have published alittle, written a lot of poetry, but have dreamed of writing fiction. I let life get in the way, and procrastinate.(that is something I am very good at; in college, my professors roasted me at an awards ceremony by asking if they could have another extension on the speech they wanted to write for me-this due to the many extensions I had begged of them).

I belong to a writers' meetup, and one of the members talked the rest of us into participatingl. I had never heard of Nano, and i was thrilled at the idea(thanks,Tony). I am
DOING it- I can't believe it-meeting and surpassing the 1667 word daily average. My life has been traumatic and sorrow ridden in the last 20 years, and this is my reward for getting through each day. I have always suffered from writer's block, and since being freed to write junk if I wish as long as get to 50,000-well,the words are rolling out and to my surprise I think some of it might be OK!

Some comments were so special, I want to comment: I think it was Jessa(if not forgive me) the young lady who feels the need to take 2 jobs, but knows it will hurt the writing-stay the course, do the writing, I wish I had at your age. Amimsa(?)tie up the inner critic, duct tape his mouth, but DON"T SHOOT HIM-you will need him come January.
god bless and good luck to all!

 
Bri
Tue, 2009-11-03 18:46
 

This is my first year, and I'm very excited. Actually, I found out about it from a friend of mine. When she was in high school (like, three years ago now) her creative writing teacher tried to get her to sign up, but she never did. And this year she has, and so have I. ^_^ I'm so excited!!!!

I think that the recession has a bit to do with more people signing up (hay, people are bored, and they have nothing to do. Why not try writing?). But then again I think that it's just the act of writing itself, too. Writing has become BIG recently. Now everyone wants to write a novel. The literary market has gotten so diverse and expanded recently that people find they can write about more things, and they like writing better now.

Personally, I'm glad, because writing rocks!!!

 
Carol R
Mon, 2009-11-02 11:05
 

I just happened to hear about this a couple of days ago when a friend on Facebook was wondering wether or not to commit. I guess you could say the economy is a factor -I got laid off in July after a 22-year career and everyone kept asking what I was going to do. One of my favorite answers was to finally write the great American novel. So, now I'm doing it! And, I've lured two others into getting involved. Looking forward to my first write-in!

 
Sun, 2009-11-01 17:49
 

This is my first time - I cannot believe I have never heard of this before! I feel so left out! (Can these words count as part of my novel?)

I found out through an email newsletter I received personally (or not) from Oprah. Once Oprah gets involved in something, it just explodes.

 
Lindsay
Sat, 2009-10-31 12:34
 

I predict that Seattle will win in word count and donations for the fourth (fifth?) year in a row! Even though I'm writing from college this year, I'm still loyal to the hydrophobic ducks. Speaking of which, Chris, how come you profile all the other up and coming regions worldwide but not us? Austria/Germany and Maryland are cool and all, but we are a single city producing more words than entire country regions! We have such an amazing community in Seattle and it would be awesome to see that profiled on one of your Q and As this year or something, especially now that we've broken 3000 affiliates locally and everything :)

 
writermelissa429
Fri, 2009-10-30 22:57
 

I found out about NaNoWriMo in the middle of last November - too late to officially join in - and kept it in the back of my mind all year that I definitely wanted to do it this year. I'm very bored and burned out at my day job, and struggling with writing my second screenplay, and just wanted some kind of crazy fun growth opportunity doing something I love. Can't wait to get started!

 
Gwen de Leone
Thu, 2009-10-29 11:32
 

I heard about this challenge from a friend some years ago, but I think the reason I chose to look it up and participate this year was that I attended a small convention over the weekend. Seeing all the small press publisher tables there inspired me to actually put forth some effort on ideas that have been building up in my head for years.

The deadline appeals to me, and I also like how the daily breakdown of word count seems very manageable (I work freelance as a translator, and have pushed myself to do more than that in a day). However, the real appeal is throwing myself into something without feeling the inner mental burden of whether it will be the greatest piece of modern literature ever written on the first draft.

I have a very overzealous inner critic, and I hope that this will be just what I need to sabatoge it.

 
Trish
Wed, 2009-10-28 23:41
 

Heard about NaNoWriMo though the Write To Done Blog...so excited!

 
lostinchina
Mon, 2009-10-26 00:01
 

Hi Everyone,

Believe it or not, my big sister suggested I get involved. I told her I was going stir crazy trying to think of something to do while living overseas and she suggested that I write a book and then sent me the link to NaNoWriMo. So here I am hoping this will keep me busy for at least a month. Lesson learned; even in your 40s your big sister can still give good advice!

 
Anonymous
Sun, 2009-10-25 14:53
 

I found out about this from goodreads. I want to be an author and I thought this soudned fun.

 
Rebecca Myers
Sun, 2009-10-25 12:22
 

Maybe the uptick in participants is related to the large number of baby-boomers leaving the job force? I know that's why I'm here.

 
Sat, 2009-10-24 15:24
 

My guess is 122,200... not a huge increase but if I have to pick a number out of the air it should be a realistic one. Hope your computer is fixed in time and mine doesn't die. One week and counting...!

 
Sat, 2009-10-24 09:38
 

I've known about NaNoWriMo ever since I got to college four years ago. I didn't feel up to attempting it while I was still in school, but now I have a 9-5—one I don't intend to be stuck in for the rest of my life. Since writing is something I enjoy and I'd eventually like to make it my livelihood, I decided this was the year to force myself to do more of it and attempt NaNoWriMo.

 
Fri, 2009-10-23 20:01
 

I found you through an online friend in 2006. Although I haven't been able to participate since 07, every single year I plug this event in my writers groups, even getting my husband to use it to push out his first (wonderful!) screenplay. I agree with many sentiments written before me: sometimes it takes a time for a good thing to get going. I think that here in America, perhaps people are becoming more contemplative than they have been in the previous decade, and this provides a wonderful outlet for expression. Kudos to your growth-- Your beautiful 2006 typwriter poster hangs framed right above my computer as a reminder of my frantic yet amazing experience.

I look forward to supporting you for many years to come, and I hope anyone who gains anything from this experience will also do the same.

Live creatively, and love long.
:) Jessalee (#160642)

 
Anonymous
Fri, 2009-10-23 19:44
 

well this is my first time doing NaNowrimo and i'm freaked out...first because i have to write 50,000 words in 30 days. i'm in high school and i get a lot of homework and stuff and i'm not sure i'll be able to do this but i will try my hardest...plus i have no idea what my novel should be about...but i'm think of doing something in the IM format of ttyl, ttfn, and 18r g8r... November should be interesting

 
jayewo
Fri, 2009-10-23 18:43
 

I'd like to think we will be 140,000 strong!

 
jayewo
Fri, 2009-10-23 18:40
 

well the good thing about Nanowrimo is that you don't have to do any editing until January. Just write. Do not re-read until the last day.
As I told my sister who joined this year - it's like skiing downhill...really fast. No time to analyze - just watch the trail ahead!

 
ajcap
Fri, 2009-10-23 11:36
 

My first Nano and I'm very excited but fear I'm not being very optimistic about making 50,000 words. That's a lot of words. That's a big committment...and I can't even write this comment without editing...I've edited it three times now.
I heard about it through a fellow student at Long Ridge. There's a few of us participating as well as doing our assignments. Should be interesting. I figure 128,502 is a realistic figure for this year. Sure hope I'm part of the percentage that wins.
Cheers, and good luck to all.

 
Natasha
Fri, 2009-10-23 11:18
 

Some of the slow rise in popularity could be attributed to the fact that things take longer to catch on in some parts of the US, not to mention the rest of the world, than in others. I moved from a state with 13 regions to a much larger state with only 4, and I'm lucky to live in one of those 'local' regions, rather than 'elsewhere'. I've been watching my region's membership grow this month; I think it will have doubled by the end of October.

Theory: Two or three brave souls start noveling individually in a town. They realize they can band together, within the 'elsewhere', and do. Eventually a region gets started. That first year of independence, a handful of people- say, half a dozen- show up to write-ins and meet-ups, and a few others are inspired to work in private. The following year, it's catching on, and the region grows in size again, because now it's a local thing more than an internet thing; now the new writers have people they see on a regular basis who are doing this, rather than just 'that college friend who lives three states away'. It becomes a little easier to believe that *you* can do this, so you do- and next year, you inspire someone else.

 
Fri, 2009-10-23 09:36
 

and btw, I'm a 4th year nanoer.

 
Fri, 2009-10-23 09:34
 

I know that I donated $ for the first time ever because:

1) I survived last year by way of charities and therefore understand the need for donations;
2) I have a job;
3) I realized just how much I enjoy this month. :)

I also had a plan come to fruition. I told an English teacher here at my university about nanowrimo a good 2 years ago. Now this year, she's teaching a creative writing class and she's requiring that they partake in nanowrimo!!! :) Muahahaha.

 
Brie
Fri, 2009-10-23 08:55
 

I heard about NaNoWriMo from this little kit at Barnes and Nobel called "No Plot? No Problem!" As I've always been intrigued with the process of writing a novel and hope to become a successful author one day, I said, "What the hell, why not?" and bought the kit. Of course, while it was very fun, I was in the middle of High School and ended up not participating for the next couple of years.

Then, with college looming on the horizon, a more flexible schedule, and a lot more free time on my hands, I went searching for NaNoWriMo on the internet. In July (I think) I signed up and this will be my first REAL NaNoWriMo. I'm terrified I won't be able to write 50,000 words in a month. My plot is going to suck. I think I'll puke by the third week from stress.

God, I'm so excited.

 
Fri, 2009-10-23 05:16
 

Hi, everyone!!

Personally, as a newbie to the whole thing, I'm really excited about doing NaNoWriMo. Usually I write children's stories, more on the picture book scale (I'm an Illustrator) and poetry, but I've wanted to delve into the world of YA novels for a long time, so... here I am!

I have a good friend who's done this in the past and loves it, so I thought, why not? I mean, it'll get me to write and that's what I need! I have a tendency to start a story, then over-analyze it, and over-edit/tweak it, until finally it just falls to the wayside, never finished. Sad, really. But I have a great (I think) idea for a story and dang it I'm going to finish this one!!!!

So, that said, I'm so excited!! (wait, I think I mentioned that already ^^)

Happy writing, everyone!

 
Fri, 2009-10-23 03:11
 

I would guess that this is just down to the overall growth of an event as it becomes more well known. I made an informal attempt at Nano some years ago, but this is the first year I've prepared myself to make a proper go at it.

As for the win rate, perhaps the fact it is becoming a more 'major' event makes some people feel they can tackle it more seriously?

 
Anonymous
Thu, 2009-10-22 21:58
 

This is also my first year. I never knew it existed until this year and found out from my obsessive Googling- because I actually wanted to write a story for something. Not just because I was bored or whatever. I wanted a time, a reason and a challenge. NaNoWriMo is precisely that.

Unfortunately some days in November would be quite busy. I might had to squeeze in a couple of hundred at some point in my free time. ^^

 
Louise Lavallee
Thu, 2009-10-22 21:49
 

I've known about NaNoWriMo since 2006. I was taking an online class from Gotham Writers Workshop, and someone I was "talking to" in "The Lounge" on the site mentioned that he was going to do NaNoWriMo and told me about it. I actually signed up, but then several things came up, and I couldn't think of a plot, so I didn't do it. The past several years I was busy doing press releases and editing newsletters for several non-profits in the small town I live in. I was also staff writer for the local newspaper for almost a year, ending in February. I did a Poem-a-Day Challenge in April successfully.

Now I am not writing anything, so NanNo would be a way to get myself to write something again. I can write to deadline, but I don't need a deadline to write to. And I don't expect to have a problem with 50,000 words, since I tend to "write long." My biggest problem is that I'm really not a fiction writer, and I am clueless as to a plot and characters! It isn't like I have been sitting around my whole life thinking about writing a novel or what it would be about. So I keep debating if I will really attempt this this time, even though I am signed up.

 
Almimsy
Thu, 2009-10-22 17:53
 

This is my first attempt. Last year a former coworker told me about it, just a few days before the start. I told her I might try the next year, but quickly forgot about it.
Then I was reading Writer's Digest two weeks ago and saw NaNoWriMo mentioned. After much hemming and hawing I figured that perhaps this would be a good chance to figure out how to shoot my internal editor, which I believe has strongly contributed to my writer's block.

My guess for number of participants... around 200,000. Why not?

 
Thu, 2009-10-22 15:58
 

I agree with most of the comments (that I've read). A big part of what will make this year a smash is that everyone is telling their friends. Coupled with last year's success, NaNoWriMo is just moving upword and forword (literally). Happy NaNoWriMo everybody! =D

 
Thu, 2009-10-22 15:08
 

I am a first year Nano-ite.

I stumbled across the NaNoWriMo site this summer after I saw a participant badge on the website of a writer I heard of through a friend. I click on the web badge and the rest is history.

The thought of trying to complete a novel in 30 days has a lot of appeal, especially to those of us who spent more than a year trying to figure out how to write the first one.

Now that I am a little more season, a little more educated, and a lot more jaded, I think I am ready to take on the challenge. Through discussion, guilt, poking, prodding, and a few posts about the subject on our blogs, my friends and I have gotten together a small group who will be participating for the first time this year. We’re taking the plunge together and really looking forward to the challenge.

 
Thu, 2009-10-22 14:43
 

I don't know if the recession is allowing more time to write, so much as many peeps would like to find an outlet to "get away from it all". I, for one, feel writing is an escape, a mini vacation, if you will ;) Of course, this is what I am guessing.

As for how many more writers this year? I bet it goes up 20% from last year and I know we can double the words ... Can you imagine 32 billion words written? Yes I CAN!!! I imagine I have written that much in my lifetime (including text messages and post its -- haha) -- I am 40 after all ;)

I am looking forward to getting my 50K words done. Who knows, maybe it will be noteworthy as well!

Happy writing Everyone!
Gypsy Rose

 
FinallyDoingIt
Thu, 2009-10-22 12:15
 

I think the word is getting out to more and more people. I read about your site in a book called, "Write a Book Before Your Dead," by Ariel Gore, and she mentioned it, I believe that is where I heard about you guys, just last month.

After looking at your site, I felt that this is what I needed to get my adrenaline going and quit procrastinating. I have worked on newspaper deadlines for years,so writing without a deadline is a struggle for me. I think that this is what I need to get my novel written. Plus, fiction is different for me, since I usually just write the facts. So, I am anxious to see what I come up with.

 
Kimberly
Thu, 2009-10-22 12:06
 

Wendy, I read your comment and thought, "I relate with her, that's exactly what I feel!" It's time, my user name is Finally Doing It. I have put it off for way to long, I'm nervous, but hopefully, with this deadline, we can pull it off! Good Luck to you. (I am one of your new fans.)

 
Allie_Sweets
Thu, 2009-10-22 11:44
 

This is my first year doing NaNoWriMo. I heard about it via LiveJournal awhile back from some online writing friends of mine. It sounded like a good idea and I always encouraged them to do it (no matter how insane I thought it to be). I googled it this year when a friend brought it up and decided to try it out for myself this year! I can't wait!

 
Lady_Catie
Thu, 2009-10-22 11:03
 

I'm totally jazzed for this. A friend of mine goaded me into it this year, though I have thought about it in past years and chickened out for one reason or another. This year I'm essentially house bound and have no reason not to.

That and I'm going to kick his ass and win hands down. He's practicing his 2000 words a day right now but I'm accomplished and more experienced, I fully expect to beat him by at least 20,000 words. In fact, maybe I'll make it a wager...

Happy writing, folks!

 
Caitlin Vandewater
Thu, 2009-10-22 10:10
 

Dude, that is awesome. It gets difficult at times while in school,but it is an amazing feeling to cross the finish line! I wish you the best of luck!

 
Thu, 2009-10-22 08:52
 

Maybe the word is getting out. More people are hearing about Nano, more people are taking the chance - heck, I did in 2005, and couldn't hit 50,000. But I came back for more! - more people who already write want to have support from fellow writers.

I just blogged about Nano and maybe one or two of my three or four readers will join the Nano phenomenon. I hope so!

Thanks, Chris!

 
Anonymous
Thu, 2009-10-22 07:15
 

I've always intended to participate (I'm a librarian - so its not like I hadn't heard about it), but there always seems to be something going on, or just wasn't up for participating by myself - but this year one of my good friends (who I didn't know last November!) is doing NaNoWriMo for like the 3rd time I think, so she's gotten me excited about it - plus knowing I will have someone in real life to be accountable to. Also I finally have an idea =D of something to write about!

 
Tels
Thu, 2009-10-22 06:43
 

Probably more people hear of it by word of mouth, blogs etc. My nano participant badge is my facebook icon atm. I do it, because it means I get the first draft of a new novel done in a month. I never write on a Sunday so once again this year I have only 25 days to write and not thirty

 
PiscesMuse
Thu, 2009-10-22 04:48
 

I had briefly heard about NaNo (or something like it) when I was in high school. There has always been a part of me that wanted to write and be an author, but at the time I was reading material like Robert Jordan and my first thought upon hearing about NaNo was that I couldn't do that in a month. Now I am in my mid twenties and I really want to get serious about writting. I was looking for local writers groups online when I found NaNo. It was August so I was deeply disapointed that I would have to wait for November. At that time if I had stumbled upon it in the middle I still would have joined. I am very excited to get started and more than a little scared.

Christmas is coming and I have presents to buy and presents to make and my hubby and I are in a tight financial position so I should be picking up a second job for some part time hours, but I think its more important to take this challenge. Mental health is sometimes way more important than financial stability and often times they are linked, but in this case I know that getting into writting is better than a dead end second job I will resent because it will be stealing from my NaNo experience no matter what extra cash it is bringing in.

I think you have a marvelous challenge and idea hapenign and I am very excited to see it grow. I know I don't yet have a little hallo over my name but as soon as I am able to I will be donating.

Thank you for this opportunity. There is nothing like a crazy idea with a whole lot of followers to make it possible and motivating. And I mean that in a positive way - not lets go start a cult and drink Koolaid kind of way.

 
Thu, 2009-10-22 03:10
 

I think it's because it is addicting.

Thursday Thirteen - Useless Knowledge

 
Amanda
Thu, 2009-10-22 03:08
 

I heard about Nano 5 years ago from friends of mine. I am a single mother, and until recently was working full time. Until I get a new job after summer I am at home. I decided it was time to tick something off he Bucket List, as who knows when I will get the time to do it. Having the time limit makes it easier for me, I like to write to deadlines.

I would guess-timate... 164,295 sign ups this year.

Rockin' poster by the way.

 
Thu, 2009-10-22 01:16
 

Well all the best luck in the world, Have fun, don't edit, and 50,000 shall be yours! (and mine, hopefully, this year. My year 8)

 
Thu, 2009-10-22 01:13
 

I'm going for the wildly optimistic prediction of 235,000 this year, Nano seems to be going from strength to strength, when I started (8 years ago) it was obscure, in Ireland anyway, and now everyone's talking about joining up. I've put my views on my newest blog post for anyone interested, its http://sallyclements.blogspot.com/

 
John
Wed, 2009-10-21 19:44
 

I guess 220,000 this year.

 
Leia
Wed, 2009-10-21 19:32
 

Last year my class did Young NaNoWriMo, and I passed the mark by almost triple (assigned 6 thou, did 19 thou). So I won but this is my first full and am I pumped! No school shall get in the way of my writing!

 
travis.d.hill
Wed, 2009-10-21 17:47
 

It's all about social networking. A former colleague of mine sent me the link via Facebook, and I in turn sent it to another colleague, who in turn... You get the picture. Since more people have been participating in the last few years, more people are going to continue to arise to the occasion, whether it be for the sheer novelty factor (no pun intended) or not, who can say.

 
Wed, 2009-10-21 17:18
 

Have always been writing and decided to write in a genre that I rarely venture into: Chick Lit. Looking forward to Nano!

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